LSU 40 - Miami 3

Ouch.

If I was Mr. Coker I might be starting to polish up the old resume.

BetBug had Miami -6.5 and I don't think I've ever seen a touchdown favourite look worse in a game.

Best Actress

She does not as yet have any buzz going this year, but in one man's humble opinion, there is only one choice for this award from now until the end of time. Ladies and Gentlemen I give you Scarlett Johansson, the divine Miss J.



Oh yes right, BetBug also has Best Actress odds up as well:

Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line) 1.8 - 1
Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha) 4 - 1
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica) 1.5 - 1
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents) 7 - 1
Naomi Watts (King Kong) 7 - 1
Charlize Theron (North Country) 15 - 1
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice) 20 - 1
Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale) 20 - 1
Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger) 20 - 1

Best Actor

I could be wrong here, but this just does not feel like a banner year for Best Male Performance in a Leading Role. Heath Ledger? Joaqin Phoenix? Not exactly Jack Nickolson or Russel Crowe. To be fair, Mr. Crowe is nominated, but Cinderella Man was so universaly panned (it was too sappy and painted much too nice a portrait of it's lead) that everyone's favorite bar room brawler does not look like he has much of a shot.

I must say this however. I friggin love Russel Crowe. So he's a drunk, has a bad temper, loves to stay out till 4 with hot ladies, and basically ignores reporters. Who cares?! The man can act. Pure and Simple. If I was that talented I'd probably be that big a prick as well. Plus I happen to agree with his view of the press and of the company he keeps at all hours of the morning.

But I digress. Since I have seen not a single minute of any of the top guys' films, I'll not be making any great predictions here, but one thing to remember. The Academy loves people who play other dead celebrities. It allows them to celebrate their own incestuous culture. Just an idea.

On to BetBug's 2006 BEST ACTOR Nominees:

Heath Legger (Brokeback Mountain) 2 - 1
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) 1.5 - 1
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk The Line) 7 - 1
David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck) 9 - 1
Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow) 9 - 1
Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale) 25 - 1
Russel Crowe (Cinderella Man) 25 - 1
Tommy Lee Jones (3 Burials of Melquite Estrada) 12 - 1
Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardner) 40 -1
Eric Bana (Munich) 35 - 1

Coming Thursday: The Ladies...where's that Adrien Brody when you need him.

And The Nominees are...

The 2006 Academy Awards are just a few short months away, but as per usual, some of the movies people are talking about have not even been widely released yet. Also as per usual, the top choices for the Oscar are movies you couldn't pay me enough to go see. I mean c'mon...a gay cowboy movie? Please. My choice of course is the ape. But somehow I just don't think Peter Jackson's follow up to LOTR is going to get there. Nonetheless, for those of you, like me, who enjoy actual EXCITEMENT in their movies as opposed to sappy and predictable melodrama, we do have odds up for Fay Ray's unrequited love along with all the other Oscar possibles.

Here with then, BetBug's Best Picture nominees:

Brokeback Mountain 1.5 - 1
Munich 3.5 - 1
Match Point 12 - 1
Good Night and Good Luck 6 - 1
Walk The Line 12 - 1
King Kong 25 - 1
A History of Violence 30 - 1
The Constant Gardner 25 - 1
Memories of a Geisha 3 - 1
Syriana 50 - 1 (this was actually an enthralling film, which is why it has no chance)
The Producers 50 - 1
Pride and Prejudice 38 - 1

Tomorrow: Best Actor

Paradise on Earth? Perhaps not

It's my favourite Bowl of the Year today! What a sun drenched, tropical paradise we have at the MOTOR CITY BOWL for the student athletes of Akron and Memphis. Beautiful downtown...DETROIT!

There is still wagering on this game of course here at BetBug but the real betting proposition for today is how many players will live to finish the game! Since both teams will probably be dodging more bullets than tackles.

It always amuses me to wonder who on Earth would ever plan a Bowl game in Detroit, Michigan and then actually market it as a "reward" for two "lucky" teams.

Luck that that I can live without.

Naughty or Nice?

I trust we've all been good little girls and boys this year. If so, the man in the big red suit will be venturing forth today from his arctic environs here to your chimney all ready for his big day. But remember, it's a lump of coal for you if Naughty is your name. Have a great Christmas!

Two weeks to go

The NFL season is almost done, but today brings us a pre-holiday feast of 13 games. Indy at Seattle ought to have been THE matchup of the week, possibly the year. But Indy's loss last week combined with the death of Tony Dungy's son have conspired to take most of the drama out of it. I say most of course, because there is still betting on the game and it just so happens that this is my Pick of the Day

In addition we have 4 other 1pm games that are just HUGE for playoff positioning. BetBug has Parlays and Teasers on all of them and indeed all four will have major impact on the post season. Chargers/Chiefs. Cowboys/Panthers. Giants/Skins. Falcons/Bucs.

To coin a phrase, I do believe Christmas has come early this year.

NFL Coach of the Year

Much like the MVP, there is a good case to be made for a number of NFL taskmasters this season as well. With Chicago's unexpected resurgence, with Indy's almost perfect season, and with Carson Palmer's break out year helping Cincy to their record three coaches do stand out from the rest. But they are by no means locks. There are afterall, 2 weeks left in the season.

BetBug's 2005 NFL Coach of the Year odds:

Lovie Smith (Chi) 1.2 - 1
Tony Dungy (Indy) 2 - 1
Marvin Lewis (Cin) 2 - 1
Mike Holmgren (Sea) 25 - 1
Mike Shanahan (Den) 25 - 1
Marty Schottenheimer (KC) 25 - 1
Field 25 - 1

Now imagine the Bears, who's last two are on the road, lost out. Indy has already wrecked their perfect season, possibly dooming Dungy's chances, and then hypothesize that Cincy goes and loses their last two (granted they play Houston and Tennessee, but stranger things have happened).

Then where would we be. We'd be staring in the face a nice juicey 25 - 1 on Mike Shanahan that's where'd be. In my ever so humble opinion.

NFL MVP

Even though it's likely going to come down to Peyton Manning or Shaun Alexander, this year's NFL MVP really is one of the more wide open in recent memory. Usually by this time of the year, there is one candidate heads and shoulders above the rest, and this is usually refected in the odds that player is, as in much much less than even money.

Not so this year. Here at BetBug, we have the following odds for the NFL's Most Valuable Player:

Peyton Manning 1.2 - 1
Shaun Alexander 1.5 - 1
Carson Palmer 12 -1
LaDainian Tomlinson 15 - 1
Tom Brady 15 - 1
Tiki Barber 15 - 1
Edgerin James 15 - 1
Field 50 - 1

While it might appear that it is a two horse race, if Seattle were to lose to Indy this weekend and Cincy were to win out, you'd have good case that could be made for Carson Palmer. As well, if New England keeps performing they way they have of late, you know that the Golden Boy Mr. Brady (and new Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year) will garner his fair share of votes.

I personally think it should go to Manning hands down, but he has won it the last two years and the writers are bound to be somewhat adverse to giving him the three peat, especially when his stats this year are not as good (even if the team record is better) as in past years. Alexander has the TD's, but Seatle has piled up the wins against the worst division in the league.

So as mentioned above, a fairly wide open race which leads of course to excellent betting value.

Tomorrow: BetBug's opinion on NFL Coach of the Year.

The Evil Empire Strikes Back

I'm certainly no Red Sox fan, but if I were waking up to this, I'd have a tough time keeping my corn flakes down.

Get to work Cratchit! Start your Bowl Betting

Today marks the begining of the 2005 Bowl Season. The New Orleans Bowl is first up, with those two "powerhouses" Arkansas St. and Southern Miss. Why in the hell anyone would even dream of taking time out of their busy Christmas season to watch even 1 minute of this game is beyond me. UNLESS OF COURSE they have a wager. To wit, BetBug has every bowl up, along with first halfs and Parlays and Teasers.

So if you care to remove some of the overwhelming boredom from MOST of these bowl matchups, here's your chance. Get down, have a punt, and then cheer on your wager while annoying the inlaws who wish you'd change the TV from the game to Miracle On 34th Street.

Of course if your relatives have any taste whatsoever, hopefully they are pushing for you to change the dial from the game to A Christmas Carol, circa 1951. Ebenezer Scrooge having always been one of my personal role models...and I mean prior to those damned Ghosts' visits!

Perfectly Done

Just look what you've done Peyton. You and your Colts have turned even this festive and lovely lady into a downer. I hope you're happy. You're no longer undefeated and even worse, I lost my Colts moneyline bet.

Now we have to endure yet another year of Shula, Griese, and the boys from '72 with their insufferable ritual toast to...themselves.

A quote from Mr. Shula yesterday:

"We're depicted as being happy about somebody's misfortune," Shula said.

THAT'S BECAUSE YOU ARE!!!

I hope they choke on that champagne.

Colts 13-0 - Don't Let Up Tony

Mr. Dungy, you have a chance in these next three weeks to rid us forever of the memory of the 72 Dolphins. Don't drop the ball, don't sit Peyton, and don't make me regret my moneyline wager at BetBug on the Colts at -300.

The Longhorns and The Long Arm. Of the Law.

Ah yes, they don't do anything small down in the Lone Star State do they?

Nothing like a little Assault and Robbery on the eve of your Rose Bowl preparation.

Great work fellas.

The line of Off The Board right now everywhere, including at BetBug. But rest assured, it will be back up, just perhaps not under that TD that it was available for a few short days ago.

The Weather outside is delightful

Am I the only person on this continent who enjoys winter? This is my kind of weather! Give me a snowy, windy, and vicious day anytime. Is it any wonder that our entire culture is growing obese though, when with just a slight sprinking of white stuff, entire cities shut down and people begin to hibernate for 4 months. Disgusting. No wonder our health care system is on the verge of collapse. People don't remember how to enjoy the season. They just sit inside in front of the TV, eat, and get fat.

Fortunately, there are a few hardy souls who choose another path. Specifically, the fans of any football team along the Eastern Seaboard. And it just so happens that all 3 Saturday NFL games are being played in such locales. New England, New York, and Buffalo. Given present conditions and future forecasts, today is the time to start betting the Under, not tomorrow two minutes prior to kickoff when you look outside and realize there is some snow and wind about but all the value in the totals has disappeared.

Timing is everything

I'll say this for the man, he's not stupid. The Heat are 2-0 and Riley is looking, just as he desired, like the instigator of a turnaround.

BetBug has Miami at 5.5:1 for the NBA Championship, and while I wouldn't go selling the kids and/or mortgaging the house just yet on that one, they do seem to have turned a corner.

Amazing what the return of a 7'1" 325lb center will do isn't it?

Mr. Slick returns

Isn't it interesting how Stan Van Gundy decides he wants to spend more time with his family and Pat Riley returns to the coaching reigns JUST as Shaquille O'Neal is about to return to the line up. Now far be it from me to say Stan was pushed, or that Riley's not insignificant ego had anything to do with this but, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

The old Alma Matter

I could not let THIS pass without a mention. Having, in a former life, been a student at this fine institution of higher learning I am loathe to point out that this sure didn't happen when I was there!

Of course it probably did. I just may have been excluded from said proceedings.

Love the line, "and she told us she was a consenting participant". God bless her little heart. Fun, cool, and truthful without an ounce of remorse. Can't get much better than that.

If we really wanted to be daring, we'd put odds up at BetBug on the chances of this occurring again during the school year. But considering that Saugeen's nickname is "The Zoo", I don't think we'd get many takers on the 1/20 that I'd be pricing it up as.

Penny wise, Pound foolish - the IOC, drug testing, and hypocrisy

Super Chargers...uh not exactly

I have a feeling the Chargers are not as happy and smiling as as their cheerleader Ashley is today. Even though San Diego is still mathematically alive for the playoffs after yesterday's debacle, if you look at their finishing schedule, you soon realize they really did themselves in yesterday by losing as a double digit favourite, at home, to the Dolphins.

Just to compare to one of the teams (ahead) of them. Jacksonville's last three opponents: San Fran, Houston, Tennessee.

San Diego's last three: Indy, KC, Denver.

The lovely Ashley is going to have to cheer her little heart out to overcome this predicament, and even with her marvelous exhortations, I don't think it will be enough.

Say goodnight Marty.

Are You Ready For Some Football!

Short and sweet today (and it will be sweet when this comes off). The World Cup draw is set and even thought they occupy the obligatory "Group of Death", I've got your ticket to a great life right here. Czech Republic. 25:1 to win the World Cup, at www.BetBug.com.

They're the 2nd ranked team in the world. Brazil is the first. Brazil is 3:1. You do the math.

Misery loves Company

Far be for me to take pleasure in someone else's pain but...gee isn't it just too bad to see the Flyers beset by all their injuries. Tough break (he he he) Hitch. But don't worry I'm sure your wide open style of play taking advantage of the new rules will more than compensate for the afflictions currently befalling your team...or not.

But please, spare me the sob stories here. They still have Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, two 20 year old burgeoning stars, ready to more than make up for any bruises to Forsberg et al.

I'll save my tears for someone a little more deserving than Bobby Clarke and his band of goons.

In fact, if I was a betting man....I'd be seriously looking at the Flyers this afternoon vs the Wild. Everyone will be have the Flyers ripe for the picking, but you just know that Hitchcock will use all this adversity motivate them to play their game of the season.

Simply The Best

They score 4.60 goals/game. They allow 2.08 goals/game. They don't just beat teams, they demolish them. They have the best line in the league with Spezza centering Alfredsson and Heatley. They have the best goalie in the league with a resurgent Dominik Hasek. And they finally have a coach willing to let them play the wide open, end to end, come at you in waves game for which this team was surely built.

On pace for 138 points, The Ottawa Senators will win the Stanley Cup this year and will not even break a sweat doing it. BetBug has them at 3.5-1 for Lord Stanley's mug and while low, that is right where they should be.

Hasek gives them their ace in the hole. Physically he looks about 25 (Christ, he also looks like he hasn't had a drink in two decades...unlike say certain other supposed #1 goalies...see Belfour, Ed) and he is only going to get better as the season progresses. Plus he probably won't play in Turin so will have 3 weeks of rest to get ready for the stretch drive.

Spezza is playing like a man possesed. He finally has been given the chance to show what he can do, he wants to make the Olympic team, and he is living up to all the expectations. He must be the early favorite for the Hart Trophy. Plus, he's got an edge to him which is something the Sens never had in the past.

They're in Vancouver tonight for a big game against the Canucks and it is my Pick of the Day. But here's one final little nugget to digest while you are watching the most exciting team in hockey tonight. The Sens, based on their goal differential and schedule strength, should actually have an even better record than they do at present. They have been UNLUCKY in the points/results department. A rather scary prospect for the rest of the league.

The Bengals 9-3. Has Hell Frozen Over?

That's what a good many people are probably asking these days, as Cincinnati is tied for the second best record in the AFC. A good many people...just not this person. If you go back into the archives here, and dig up Monday September 5th, you'll note a post entitled, "Sleeper Gold - The Cincinnati K".

In it I state emphatically that this would be Carson Palmer's breakout season (which it has been) and that the Bengals would easily go over their posted season wins total of 8 (which they have...with 4 weeks remaining).

Far be it for yours truly to gloat, ok not so far be it, as the sound of my own voice is nothing if not sonorous, especially when it is correct, which it surely was with this little gem of a pick.

Cincy can still be had at 9:1 for the Super Bowl at www.BetBug.com. Mind you that is a far cry from the 50:1 or so you could have had on them if you had taken a certain humble scribe's advice just a few short months ago

The Yankees of the North?

In the span of just over a week, J.P. Richardi has laid out 102 million dollars for two pitchers. The lastest of whom, A.J. Burnett just signed for 55 million over 5 years.

Now far be it from me to rain on the Jays' parade but before we annoint them AL East favorites, let's all just consider this telling little stat. Burnett's home/road splits OVER HIS CAREER are drastically tilted in favor of his home, pitcher friendly park. As Joe Sheehan correctly points out in today's BaseBall Prospectus article on the deal, A.J.'s career E.R.A at home is 3.20. His career road E.R.A is 4.26. And it doesn't stop there. All his interior numbers (K/IP, K/BB) dovetail with his E.R.A split.

And worst of all, in over 6 years of MLB baseball service time, he has made more than 30 starts just twice. He is injury prone.

If A.J. Burnett and Roy Halladay (another pitcher who has missed significant portions of the last two season) don't both make over 30 starts during the 2006 season, you won't find the Blue Jays anywhere close to Pennant contention. Period.

Burnett and B.J. Ryan both may have success in Toronto. But they were not good investments at the price and term. Trying to predict pitching performance out over a five year horizon is impossible. But the Blue Jays gave them both five year deals. The Jays are rolling the dice in a huge way. The odds are not in their favour. Not even close.

When Season Win Totals come out this spring at BetBug take the Under on the Jays. You, unlike Mr. Richardi, will be getting value for your money.

Sober Second Thought

While I just posted that the Seat Totals are right about where they should be, I have reconsidered a few possibilities and now am in fact ready to step out for a punt on this little election we're about to have in Canada. Check out BetBug's PICK OF THE DAY for a bit of a rant and more importantly a value pick on one of the Party's Seat Totals.

Campaign Update

Harper continues to announce platform planks each day. The optics and politics have been good, some of the policy...well it is an election. But one wonders whether he has left any powder in the keg? The campaign is 8 weeks long. You can almost feel the Liberals glee at watching the Conservatives roll out all their goodies prior to Christmas, while they await the three week, post holiday sprint to the finish. However if you are trying to combat attacks of a "hidden agenda", then I suppose this is what you must do.

Wouldn't it be nice if just once, we had an election where the public didn't allow itself to be bought off by which ever party went to the trough the most? Sigh.

I haven't seen enough yet to alter any of my thinking regarding probable Seat Totals. BetBug. still has the following Over/Unders:

Liberals 119.5 Seats
Conservatives 99.5 Seats
New Democrats 28.5 Seats
Bloq Quebecois 60.5 Seats

I do continue to just be astounded though by how easy a time Martin has moving the soft NDP vote over to the Liberals to combat the supposed "Tory Menace". Don't these NDP types realize that, thanks to Canada's new campaign finance law Bill C-24, every vote for their party is another $1.50 into the party's coffers for the next election. So not only are they wrecking their chances in the present election, but they are also sabotaging themselves for the future.

Cutting off one's nose to spite one's face indeed.

DEMS v GOP

So with yet another Canadian Election in full swing (didn't we just have one of these things?!) there's also some interesting developements south of the border in the political sphere.

The Democratic Nomination is Hillary's to lose.

But the GOP Nominee, now that is a horse race. If it was a general election it would be McCain v Giuliani and no one else need apply. But because this is just the GOP, both are no sure things due to their rather more liberal social views. Which opens things up for a number of candidates to stake their claim to support from the Social Conservative wing of the party. Check out BetBug for the contenders so far, but in reality this list could be far from complete. Almost anyone could emerge at this point. If a week is an eternity in politics then a year, or more, is forever.

Lastly the 2008 Presidency itself. Assuming Hillary for the Dems, if it's Rudy or McCain for the GOP, then I'd say we've got basically a 50/50 split. But if the GOP go off the map and nominate one of their SoCons, then Hilary is going to win this thing, and the GOP will have no one to blame but themselves.

What's that they say about winning the battle but losing the war?

TEXAS v USC

It took until late Saturday evening, but I was proven correct. There was an upset involving one of the day's big favorites. FSU smoked VTech, at home! So much for the Hokies great year. They have now lost to their two key rivals (FSU and Miami) and are a smoke and mirrors team, as the rest of their ACC schedule was patsy city.

A couple of teams who did not lose would be USC and Texas. We might just might, be looking at one of the best Championship games ever.

Pasadena awaits gentlemen.

A College Feast

With two of the four BCS Bowls now NOT being played on Jan 1 (or in this year's case, Jan 2) the first Saturday in December has actually become the BEST day in College Football each year. In addition to ARMY vs NAVY (and if you haven't read John Feinstein's book on this game and it's history, you are missing something), we have:

THE BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
THE ACC CHAMPIONSHIP

And I haven't even mentioned that annual little grudge match between West Coast surfers, UCLA at USC.

Hot damn, what a day. Yes this year there are quite a few lobsided spreads, but these college title games have a way of staying close and in fact I will go on record right now as saying we will see an outright upset of one of the big boys today. Can I tell you exactly which one? If I could do that, you'd be reading a blog about the flora and fauna found in Turks and Caicos.

Enjoy the day.

TNT Thursday NBA

Ok now look, I enjoy an overtime thriller like last night's Lakers/Jazz matchup as much as the next guy. Actually that's not true. If it wasn't for the betting I really could give a damn about such a terrible regular season NBA game.

But the game's relative merits aside, who on Earth is waiting up till 2:04am to watch this thing finish? TNT Thursday NBA games never, ever start on time, end late, and usually take 3 hours to play. FOR FOUR 12 MINUTE QUARTERS.

LUDICROUS.

Why? Well of course, because of extra commercials, a longer halftime, and the late starts (last night 10:50pm instead of 10:35pm).

Now I'm sure David Stern doesn't care one iota what I think of his Association, but he sure ought to care about all the young fans (and potential consumers of NBA product) he is turning off simply because they will be in bed! And all the adult fans as well, who simply do not have time on a weeknight to stay up until 2am.

I truly hope he enjoys the tv cash now, because he is cutting off his nose to spite his face for the long run. And when his attendance is in the tank (as it is in many cities at present) and when his ratings are abymsal, we'll just see how much money he can wring out of TBS and ESPN. This is a league that once did not even have it's Finals on live television. It happened once. It can happen again.

Drop the Writ! - The Ultimate Blood Sport

Something a little different today. Our friends below the 49th may or may not be aware of this, but Canada has just embarked on a Federal Election campaign. The key question is whether voters are sick enough of the governing Liberals and their corruption to boot them out. The problem is that the opposition Conservatives seem to come up against a "Devil you know" kind of attitude amongst many voters more times than not.

So it should be a nice, dirty, sleezy, mud-filled campaign, with no end of charges and counter charges (you are a bigot for rallying against same sex marriage, you are a thief for funneling our money to Quebec), endless accusations (you'd use the not withstanding clause - you'd give all our money to your cronies), and relentless catch phrases (NATIONAL UNITY! - TIME FOR A CHANGE!).

I can't wait. And if you are a political junkie like yours truly, now you can put your money where your mouth is. BetBug offers the head to head matchup that is really the key question of the election, Grits vs. Tories, with the Liberals (I'm sad to say) being the rather prohibitive -280 favorite just now.

BetBug also offers seat total Over/Unders for all four major parties (sorry Greens, just like in the debates, you're excluded...although I don't completely mind your platform, it's certainly more fiscally sound than Mr. Layton's). And you'll note that they do indeed add up to the requisite 308 seats for the next session of Parliment:


119.5


99.5


28.5


60.5