For Wagering Enthusiasts

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

The Academy Awards


Every year at this time I get excited as the nominations are to come out. And every year I get disappointed. You could not PAY me to go see this year's favourite for Best Picture, Brokeback Mountain. A gay cowboy movie? C'mon. Good Night and Good Luck yes, but not a movie about two guys in chaps carrying on a 20 year unrequited love story.

Yeesh.

And Hollywood wonders why they had such a bad year.

Now mind you I fully admit that some of the movies I was looking forward to this past year were complete bombs as well. Fantastic Four for instance. Just god awful.

But other than last year with Lord of the Rings, and the year Gladiator won, I can't ever recall a time when the movies I LIKE have gotten even a sniff at these golden statues.

Oh well...c'est la vie.

Even though we may not like most of them, BetBug does have odds on all your main categories for the big event. Today Best Picture:

Brokeback Mountain -500
Crash +550
Munich +1700
Good Night and Good Luck +2500
Capote +3000

Monday, January 30, 2006

May The Force Be With You


This may be the single greatest photo I have ever seen. Can't add a thing, other than NO, BetBug does not offer odds on battling Jedi Knight Fighting Squirrels.

Sunday, January 29, 2006

The Leafs and The Lemmings

Ah yes, I knew Les Habitants would not let me down last evening. Another win for our Pick of the Day and another loss for the hapless Leafs, their 8th in a row. Now they just need to go for their team record, which if you didn't know occured back in 1967 and was a losing streak of 10 straight.

Actually, it astounds me that during the 70's and 80's they somehow did not eclipse this total. As any long suffering Leaf fan could tell you, those were not exactly the boom years.

So what to do with this sad collection of mismanaged players. Here with, one astute man's prescription.

First a pointed note though: Unlike the Lemming like followers content to march in step with this team's downward descent right over the cliff, we will be looking to the long term, toward building to WIN THE CUP. Not simply a first round series. Celebrating along Young Street for winning a round or making the playoffs and the accompanying management realization that this is all that is required to fill the building and sell the jerseys are what has kept this once proud franchise mired in mediocrity for so long.





1 - Mats Sundin elevates his level of play and dominates at the Olympics, as he has done before. His trade value thus increased, JFjr immediately starts the bidding. You think perhaps, oohhhh...i don't know say CALGARY might be interested in a #1 centerman for the playoffs. So we flip him for good young players and at least one 1st round pick, if not two.

2 - McCabe is a UFA this off season. The Lemmings that inhabit the ACC seem to forget this. You think he'll give us a hometown discount. THINK AGAIN YOU CLUELESS FOOLS! He'll want at the very least 6 million per year, if not more. He still is not good enough defensively to justify this kind of outlay. We therefore start the bidding on him as well. Once again, good YOUNG prospects and draft picks are the required compensation. Preferablly some young, BIG, defensively minded blueliners among the players.

3 - Dump Alison for WHATEVER you can get. Even if it's just a bag of pucks. At all costs we want to avoid paying him his 4 million or so next year.

4 - The one thing Ferguson has done well is have a ton of cash available for next year and not lock himself into any long term deals. The cap going up hurts this strategy, as it reduces our large available payroll's marginal utility and helps out capped out clubs like the Wings and the Devils, but we still are in very good shape cap wise going forward.

5 - Once Sundin has been traded we immediately elevate to our number one line the only youth we have. And we play them 22 minutes per game each. STAJAN - WELLWOOD - STEEN. Period. This is the future. We let them play and let them learn. Lindros is our 2nd line center with Tucker and O'Neill. They play a ton as well. We want to see if 88 still has it in himself to be an elite level player. Same with O'Neill. 3rd and 4th line ice time and who gets it is basically irrelevant . We're focused on the future for once, not the present.

6 - Belfour is dealt, if possible, as well. Probably at this point there's no one who wants him....but you never know. someone like Kevin Lowe might just be stupid enough to think Ed has something left (he doesn't) and might just part with some youth to find out. Edmonton afterall do have a rather dire need for someone to tend their twine. Telqvist plays 90% of the rest of the season, once again as with Lindros, to find out once and for all if he can be a true #1 goalie. If not, we've got both Pogge and Rusk just waiting to get a shot.

7 - We tank, as much as possible, the rest of the season to finish with as high a draft position as possible. It seems unlikely that even the Leafs could be so bad from here on out as to finish amongst the bottom 3 (to gain the lottery for the #1 pick) but given how many points they have accumulated their last 8 games with Sundin, perhaps such a goal is not unreachable. Kessel (not that I desire this over-rated clown but he'd fetch a ridiculous amount in any trade), Johnson, Toews...we're coming for you.


8 - With the draft picks and youth acquired in trades, we completely overhaul the team, basically dispensing with all the dead wood (that means you Nik) and keep just that which is productive. And we outright CUT Domi. I don't care if he does have pictures of Tanenbaum sleeping with goats (he must!), he's gone.

9 - We do resign Kaberle. But only if we hold him to less than 5 million per season. If some other team wants to pony up 6 million per year for a soft, yet smooth skating dman, well let them. After the Olympic break Colaiacovo starts playing 27 minutes per game anyway to finally allow him to adapt to the speed of the NHL without always having to look over his shoulder and worry about making one mistake and getting benched.

10 - Quinn is kept on until the end of the season. But is told in no uncertain terms by JFjr during the break that he will be playing the kids ALL THE TIME. Otherwise he will be fired immediately. Thus chastened, we keep him around till April (there will be no May or June for this team sorry to burst your bubble Lemmings) and then immediately elevate the brightest and most sought after young coach in hockey, Paul Maurice, to the big club from the Marlies. Having had a year to get back into the coaching game, and already having proven his infinite ability with Carolina (you do remember 2002 don't you Lemmings?), we let him become the firm hand that guides our youth to eventual victory.

Sadly for those few Leaf fans who are not blinded by the present (and past) and who are indeed mindful of the future, the above will never occur given present attitudes. Because to do so would mean MLSE was truly committed to winning the Stanley Cup, not just pretending to contend and raking in the accompanying cash. Indeed they may very well be worried that if they finally do go and win the thing, that would satisfy the pent up desire all too well of the Lemmings and that thus placated, the Lemmings would no longer care quite so passionately or financially fervently, about their Blue and White.

So basically the only way to affect meaningful change in the course of this franchise is for, quite simply, the cash to run out. NOW. To force MLSE to re-think their assumptions and to realize that they cannot take for granted forever the allegiance and loyalty of Leaf fans. And how does this occur? Quite simply.

Two things need occur. First you as a Leaf fan must give up all hope that there is any chance of competing for a Stanley Cup at any point in the near future. As Daredevil will tell you, a man without hope is a man without fear. And a lack of fear of the future is what is needed here. This is why the Leafs actually scraping into the playoffs as the 8th seed (even though it would hurt us draft position wise) and then proceeding to get absolutely and utterly humilated by Ottawa in 4, if not fewer, games (as they so surely would and oh how enjoyable that would be to watch...nothing like seeing The Lemmings crying in their beers) would infact be EXACTLY the cold, hard SLAP IN THE FACE that is required to jolt fans out of their delirium induced stupors and thus force into part two. Which is:

The Lemmings must then, having awoken to the pathetic reality of their team, FINALLY, COMPLETELY, and EMPHATICALLY refuse to spend one more red cent on any ticket, jersey, hat, or product in any way associated with MLSE. Fans have it in their power to force the high and mighty boys of MLSE to change course and actually commit to winning. But fans themselves must change course and commit to winning first.



In other words and to paraphrase Jeremy Roenick:

Wake Up Lemmings! Wake Up!

Saturday, January 28, 2006

And Goodbye Mr. Bailey


Unlike Chris Bosh in a years time, Jerry Bailey, the best jockey on this side of the ocean for the last 10 years is not leaving racing to head for greener pastures, he is simply retiring. He'll be taking up residence with the boys at ESPN and ABC and will do a great job as an analyst along with Randy Moss. He's always been well spoken and articulate and the best part of all of this...less time for Kenny Mayne to speak on the telecasts and offer his...ahem...racing insights.

Friday, January 27, 2006

Goodbye Mr. Bosh


Raptors fired their GM yesterday. 2nd time in two years. New GM will probably tie the Coach to the can as well. This franchise is the laughingstock of the NBA. And any Raptors fan who believes that Chris Bosh wants anything but a quick and speedy exit out of town at the soonest opportunity is just deluding themselves.

Thursday, January 26, 2006

The Queens find their King?

Have the Sacremento Kings finally shed their Shaq inspired "Queenly" label of career chokers by picking up one of the most intense players in the NBA?

Can the Kings turn their season around? They are only 2.5 games out of the playoffs?

Will the 50:1 available right now at BetBug for the Kings to win it all look like extreme value when their playing the Pistons in the final in June?

All good questions.

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

#66 calls it a career


Well apparently my idea of Mr. Lemiaux trading himself is not exactly about to happen. It will be tough to trade himself afterall when he no longer plays! Good luck Mario. The 1987 Canada Cup will always be your crowning achievement.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Better Betting

Everyone is familiar with discount brokerages right? Well that's the correct way to think about BetBug.

Instead of having to pay high juice to cover high overhead fees, BetBug simply takes all the middle man stuff out of the equation.

Traditional sportsbooks and old school bookies may not like it but peer to peer wagering is the future of sports betting. Much like this year in the NHL, the old dinosaurs can either get with it, or get out of the way, because they are about to be made EXTINCT.


Monday, January 23, 2006

SUPER BOWL XL




The Line at www.BetBug.com:

Pittsburgh -4 Even vs. Seattle
Over/Under 47

Couldn't we just peitition the Colts and Pats to play a make up game this Sunday. They WERE the two best teams afterall. And it is the game everyone really wanted to see. Yes I realize it wouldn't have been the SB, but who cares. If one liquored up kicker had made his FG and one eggregious non-touchback call had been made (Bailey fumbled that ball THROUGH the endzone, not to the side line) we'd have had the Game of the Season everyone was drooling for. Instead we get this. Yuk.

Two weeks of over blown hype in Motown begins today. Oh joy.

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Get off your butt and get out and Vote!



I hope like heck that Mr. Harper and the Tories pull this thing off and toss out the Liberals into the alleyways, where they belong. But for God's sake, no matter who you like, make sure tomorrow that you excercise your democratic RESPONSIBLITY and get out and vote.

And pursuant to that point, don't let some misguided notion of "strategic voting" or someone elses's fear mongering allow you to be pushed off whichever party you support. Each vote in this election is worth $1.75 to that pary's campaign finances in the next election. So if you don't vote for the party you really do support, not only are you doing them (and yourself) a disservice this time, but well into the future also.

BetBug has seat totals and a straight up line for the Liberals v the Conservatives for tomorrow's big vote:

Liberals 81.5
Conservatives 139.5
NDP 28.5
Bloq 57.5

Conservatives -1200 / Liberals +900

And while in the dying days here it seems that Martin has closed the gap slightly, it won't be enough and come Tuesday morning people had better get used to the term Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Saturday, January 21, 2006

Is there anyone out there who really bets ALL this college hoops

I stand by my prior assumptions when it comes to what generates the most action. And it's not the MOST games. On a day with 82 college basketball games I contend that as far as leading to action, it is far better to have just 10 or so big games, as opposed to this ridiculous amount of hoops. And here at www.BetBug.com this contention is proven over and over again. Our volume goes up when there's just a few BIG games to focus on, and down when there's 100+ out there.

If the sports wagering community was really smart they'd petition the NCAA to get rid of about 140 or so NCAA Division One teams. Only the big 3 or 4 conferences on the Board each week.

I bet (to make a bit of a pun) you'd see volume go through the roof.

Friday, January 20, 2006

Well that didn't take long

If I'm a member of Red Sox Nation, I'm probably pretty happy to wake up to this:



Incidendentally, if anyone would like to read the definitive book on how (and why) Boston won it's World Series, check out Baseball Prospectus' "Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning"



Highly analytical, completely absorbing, very much reccomended.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Trade Yourself Mario!


So let's see where we are. The team is imploding. It cannot win a game. The newly arrived coach has taken to verbally and publically calling out his players for lying down like dogs. The team's best player is getting physically abused EVERY SINGLE GAME because no one on the team will stand up for him. They have just had to pick up Eric Cairns, a prime time goon, to finally get someone to ensure that #87 doesn't loose his head.

So what should be done in Pittsburgh to turn this team around?

Simple. In addition to jettisoning as many of the horrible contracts and old guys they picked up (and thank you very much Ziggy for deciding that planning your wedding was more important than that 5 million or so next year) last year, the owner of the Penguins, one Mr. Mario Lemieux, should trade the most valuable non youthful asset he possesess. HIMSELF!

Think about it. Why on Earth would this not work? Mario still has a litte bit left, could certainly help a playoff team on the Power Play and would probably still fetch at least a 2nd round draft pick. By trading himself at the deadline, he absolves the Penguins of both 1/6th of his salary and aquires another piece of the puzzle (the pick) to go along with all the other ridiculous young talent they presently possess.

Pittsburgh, or rather should I say Houston, is going going to be so good in 3 years it's going to be sick. Best young player in the league (Crosby). Best young player not in the leauge (Malkin). Best young goalie prospect anywhere (Fleury). And a very good shot at the 1st overall pick this year as well, who would be, if they have any sense, Eric Johnson the wicked young defenseman who looked so good for Team USA at the just completed World Juniors. So good in fact he has eclipsed Phil Kessel (a greasy haired play on the periphery little punk) as the new consensus #1 pick by Central Scouting.

Anyone remember what happened to the Quebec Nordiques the season after they moved to Colorado.

There's your template Penguins, you unmitigated decade long losers.

Disgusting. Play the leagues doormat for 10 years, stockpile wild youth, win the Cup. See this season's team in the National Capital Region of Canada for advice on how it's done.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Why BetBug?

Want to know what we are? Want to know why BetBug offers extreme value for players? Click below and find out.

this is an audio post - click to play

Monday, January 16, 2006

Petyon Manning, meet Greg Norman


Well it wasn't quite the 97 Masters when Norman blew a 6 shot lead with 18 holes to go, but considering that they were the best team in the league all year, almost went undefeated, had homefield throughout the playoffs, AND had just seen their arch nemesis throw the game away the night before, you might have thought the Colts would have decided to not let themselves get smacked in the mouth...yet again.

You would have been wrong.

Needless to say, with the Colts choking like the dogs they are, the betting for the Super Bowl has been affected. BetBug has the AFC as a 4 point favourite over the NFC, with a total of 46. All season long, I loathed the NFC and would have told you that their conference's representative was but meer foder for whomever came out of the AFC, even if it was not the Colts.

However...

Just now, on January 16th, it's my considered opinion that the best team LEFT IN THE PLAYOFFS...by no stretch are they the best team in the league, but the best team left upon which betting is still available just happens to be...the Carolina Panthers. And it also just so happens they are available at a lovely 4.7:1 at BetBug.

I think I may have just talked MYSELF into a wager.

Sunday, January 15, 2006

MVP out...no problem for the Seahawks

Is it a good thing when the reigning league MVP gets knocked out in the first quarter of your playoff game? I was more impressed with Seattle today than at any point during their regular season winning streak. Alexander may be concussed but at least they now know that they can win without him.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Can Peyton find Vince?

Peyton Manning begins his quest for a first Super Bowl this weekend and you can wager on the success or failure of said notion. You can also have a bet on whether or not he'll have to go through his nemesis, the New England Patriots, who I imagine he thought he had stomped on and killed back in November, only to see them re-emerge like the proverbial Phoenix from the ashes of their secondary fueled early season disarray. It won't be in Foxborough this year (a rather monstrous edge for the Colts) but it would still be the game of the season, if they both take care their business this weekend.

Friday, January 13, 2006

This week's Sign the Apocalypse is upon us

I'm an inveterate Apple fan from way back. You're reading the prose of someone who has in his possession a still functioning ORIGINAL Macintosh to say nothing of the semi functional Apple II+ in my closet as well.

The Mac has always been a better machine with a far superior operating system to Windows. And I have had no end of fun mocking my PC loving friends who fail to see the elegance, simplicity, and power of the MAC.

So you can of course imagine my distress at this:



Forgive me for wondering if Hell has frozen over today.

Mind you, if the Devil is indeed sporting a parka and toque just now there is one positive aspect to his new sartorial splender...



25:1 at BetBug people. Get on it.

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Bode Miller has nothing to apologize for. Period.


RIDICULOUS. Just ridiculous. Bode has nothing to apologize for. So he likes to have a couple of beers, big deal. So he's been hungover or drunk skiing. I could care less. In fact it makes me like him more. This imposed morality that we are subject to these days, where no matter what you do, for some reason you're a role model, give me a break.

The idea that there's a million little children out there just crushed my Miller's comments is both false and non-sensical. False because he's hardly a household name to begin with in the USA and because any kid that does know of him probably now likes him more! Non-sensical because well, if you're a poor enough parent to allow your children to hero worship some clown who skiis down mountains, and then when he admits to liking alcohol (gasp!) your little kid has so little self esteem that he is crushed...well guess what you losers, that's not Bode Miller's fault.

That's YOUR FAULT. For being an inept and pathetic parent.

This culture we seem to have developed where everyone has to be responsible for everyone else sickens me.

YOU are responsible for YOU. No one else. When people allow this sort of thing to get out of hand (see Government, Big) all it does is enfeeble the population and set us back as a civilization.

End of Rant.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

He who hesitates is lost

I hope everyone jumped on the -170 for the Conservatives at BetBug yesterday. Because it no longer is on offer. We are now betting the Cons at -300. And even that may not be enough. Bye Bye Paul. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Post Debate debate

No knockouts, no major screw ups. This debate will change nothing. Martin's pledge to get rid of the notwithstanding clause was a hail mary throw by a desperate man out of ideas looking to save his job, and will be seen by such.

The real story from today: 4 new polls announced. The SMALLEST Conservative margin in any of them is 8 points.

In ascending order:

Strategic Councel 8pt Conservative lead
Decima 9pt Conservative lead
Ipsos 11 pt Conservative lead
Ekos 14 pt Conservative lead

This latest info has moved BetBug's odds. At present we are betting:

Conservative -170 / Liberals +150 with corresponding seat totals of 119.5 and 107.5.

And that -170, while steep, is a great bet.

This election is over and nothing Paul Martin can do in the next two weeks will change that. The only question now is will Stephen Harper be forming a Minority or...notice the audible gasp here from all the professional opinion makers out there who can not believe it's possible... a Majority government.

Monday, January 09, 2006

Houston we have a horse race.


Tonight begins the last of two rounds of debates in the Canadian Federal Election, and since the first debates last month Paul Martin's Liberals have plummetted while Stephen Harper's Conservatives have ascended.

To wit, at BetBug we opened the Liberals seat total Over/Under at 121.5 and the Conservatives at 99.5.

Here's where they, plus the NDP and Bloq, stand at present:


110.5



116.5



23.5



57.5


As you can see, the Tories have gone from a 22 seat deficit to a 6 seat surplus. Had a person been wagering in fact, one could have nicely "middled" the seat totals taking the Under 121.5 for the Liberals in December and then now taking the Over 110.5. Meaning if the Grits end up somewhere between 110 and 120 you would win BOTH BETS! And if they don't the worst you can do is break even.

How do I stand on this at present? Well if you had asked me a scant 24 hours ago, I'd have said that taking the Conservatives at -120 (basically pick'em odds, $120 to win $100) to win more seats than the Liberals was a gift. What with the Income Trust Scandal, the RCMP investigation said scandal, the non descript campaign Mr. Martin has run, and of course Gomery, it looks almost impossible for the Libs to win at this point.

So of course what does Harper do yesterday? He opens his mouth and muses about the possiblity of a Majority Governent! STEPHEN...ARE YOU NUTS??? Did you learn nothing from the last election. You had the lead until you and your party started to appear arrogant and assuming of an electoral victory. If there's anything voters loathe more than corruption it's a politician taking them and their votes...FOR GRANTED.

This plus the fact that the Libs have finally started hammering the Conservatives today on the cost of all their promises and the fact that the Conservatives have stated they will negate the Liberal income tax cuts for low wager earners (even if they have other tax cuts of their own coming) and well...with the debates tomorrow for Martin to punish Harper on these points, well, I think we might just be looking at yet another turning point.

My best betting advice: Wait to watch the debates. See how much traction and play the cost of the Conservatives promises and the tax cut issue gets. If all goes well for Harper, take the Conservatives to win. In two weeks -120 could look like a bargain.

If however Martin regains his footing and the media (as is their want) punish the Tories, well then we'll have to wait till late in Election Night for the BC results to allow us to divine a winner.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

It's the most non-wonderful time of the year

I just realized. After today's two NFL games, there are but 8 football games left this season. And that includes the Pro Bowl! Then 7 months of drudgery till life can begin again. The NFL really does need to goto a 50 week schedule. And for that matter a few more nights per week of football wouldn't hurt either (that of course is happening next year with the Thurs/Sat late season package).

A half year of boredom awaits people. Get used to it.

Saturday, January 07, 2006

NFL Wild Card Weekend


The Road to the Vince Lombardi Trophy begins today.

2 days. 4 games. 8 teams. By Sunday night only 4 teams will remain. Everyone makes a huge deal out of this weekend, and it is exciting. And BetBug has all the action. But let's all remember. There's a reason these 8 teams are all playing this weekend, instead of relaxing like the Colts, Broncos, Seahawks, and Bears.

And the reason is because non of these 8 teams were GOOD ENOUGH. So don't let the winners of this weekend's games fool you. It is a quantum task to ask a wild card team just to make the Super Bowl, let alone win it.

Friday, January 06, 2006

Today's posting cancelled on account of...GOLD!!!

Thursday, January 05, 2006

Early Super Bowl Line

Here at www.BetBug.com, we've got an early line up for the big game with the AFC favoured by 9 over the NFC. I think this is about right and here's why. While you cannot take it for granted that Indy will make the final, even if it's one of the other AFC teams, unless they face the Seahawks, the line will be at least this. Given the likelihood that it is indeed Indy and Seattle balanced by the chance that Indy doesn't make it (say about 30%), the number 9 probably cuts it right down the middle of where you'd see the two extremes.

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

2006 Rose Bowl


Finally, we have the game. USC has their winning streak. Texas has their defense. And we have the game of the Century, at least to this point. At the Line of USC -7 I like neither side, but if you put a gun to my head (and I'm sure there are a few females around who would assist you with this) I'd lay the points. I've been against USC all season, but I just have a feeling tonight that the occasion might get the best of Texas where as the Trojans are old pros at this type of thing. But again, the line is solid so best just to sit back and enjoy the game.

Of course if you disagree with my analysis and do like a side here, well BetBug is the place for you. FIVE CENTS JUICE (lowest on the planet) awaits you if you can choose the winner...for that matter, even if you choose the loser, you will still lose less!

Let's hope it's a good game and not a blowout.

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

On Fire!

Ok, I am not one to brag about my ability to choose winners, mostly because the second one starts to do this they usually enter about a week long losing streak.

HOWEVER. It must be said, I am on fire. Not only have my Picks of the Day won five in a row, but this almost week long streak also includes a +430 outright moneyline winner (the Broncos thank you very much Denver).

I can't speak to how long this will continue but at the very least it's been a rather profitable little run. Which is of course all that matters.

Monday, January 02, 2006

Happy New Year

As you'll know from my prior post, today, for yours truly, is the real start of 2006. 6 Bowl games starting at 11am and ending past midnight, this is my kind of day. One in particular I can't wait to watch. The Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame vs Ohio State. The chess strategy we're going to see between Tressel (nice job shaping the future of that young student athlete Mr. Clarret btw Jim) and Weiss will be delicious to watch.

BetBug of course has all the games, parlays and teasers, sides and totals, everything you need to enjoy the true start to this year. Enjoy the day and don't spill the taco dip.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

January 1st...and I get...the NFL???

Forgive the lack of sentiment here but...WHERE THE HELL ARE MY BOWL GAMES????

I don't give a damn if the NFL is the most successful sporting entity on the planet. I don't care that is is Sunday. What I do care about is the fact that it is January 1st and I have NO BOWL GAMES. Who is responsible for this? I am appalled. I am in shock. I am...well hell...I am in need of drink. This is ridiculous.

This had better never happen again, or else.

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